I haven't blogged so much recently but this is such a good example for me to express my honest opinions on, that I'm no going to miss the chance.
Redwings is a horse charity and they have form for ragwort hysteria. Some years ago a leaflet they did was banned by the Advertising Standards Authority for scaring people with inaccurate scary information.
The latest piece of nonsense from them that I want to talk about here is this.
"The number of ragwort plants in the UK currently increases by a huge percentage each year. This is not surprising when you consider that each ragwort plant can produce between 4,760 and 150,000 seeds. Each seed has a 70% chance of germinating. The seeds can also survive dormant in the soil for up to 20 years."
Where do you start with this kind of nonsense!
There is no evidence to support the notion that ragwort is increasing by a huge percentage The last available data shows a decline and equine charities at the time were claiming the same huge increases.
The justification is biologically ignorant rubbish! It does not matter how many seeds a plant produces or what the laboratory germination rate is as each plant produces on average just one offspring and creates the seeds necessary to do that. Surely anyone with any sense can see that?
This germination rate is passed around to scare people. Stop for a moment and think, don't most plants germinate like that? I've just planted some alfalfa and clover in small pots, because I'll be wanting them as foodplant for caterpillars next year and will need to move them in and out of cages and to see the caterpillars clearly. I counted the seeds out and individually planted each one and they have all germinated. This is normal.
The earth weighs 5.972 × 10^24 kg that is nearly 6000000000000000000000000 kilograms. Let's assume that each ragwort plant produces 3332 offspring which is 70% of the lower figure they give for seed production to allow for the claimed germination rate. Put this into a calculator press the times key twice and keep pressing the equals key. After just seven generations the weight of ragwort plants exceeds the weight of the earth!
The argument being made is absurd, yet we know that some people will believe it adding more to the destruction of the environment unnecessarily.
And where do Redwings get their inspiration from. Well, regular readers will not be surprised to see them saying this:-
"Vet Derek Knottenbelt at Leverhulme Veterinary Hospital in Liverpool is a leading figure in the campaign to take ragwort and its devastating effects seriously. He is at the forefront of research into developing a reliable test to link liver damage specifically to ragwort toxins, which at the moment is impossible to distinguish from other causes of liver disease in the living animal. If you ever have the chance to see Derek Knottenbelt speak on the subject, don't miss it! "
Oh dear, oh dear, him again! For new readers, this is the man who claimed ragwort was a serious problem in South Africa, where in fact it has never been recorded. He also claimed it was increasing when it was decreasing and also that it is responsibly for the decline in the cinnabar moth, because it was poisoning it! Bonkers or what! It is the natural food plant of the moth!!!
We have a good idea of what he says in his talks because of an article he wrote and here is my debunk of of what he said. I identify 17 issues of scientific problems with the article! It is rubbish from beginning to end!
He is retired by the way and the test was the subject of a PhD thesis by a student. It essentially didn't show anything our of 91 horses with liver problems suspected to be ragwort, only 1, an obvious abuse case showed positive results. The test has never been rolled out. It wasn't viable. Yet of course Redwings use it to make this man look good.
They are of course in violation of Charity Commission rules once again!
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